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Expected Return Calculator

Calculate weighted expected return and risk across three scenarios.

Reviewed by the KakouCalc editorial team · Updated July 2026

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Expected Return
5.20%
Standard Deviation (Risk)
4.92%
Total Probability
100.00%
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How to use the Expected Return Calculator

The Expected Return Calculator is free and runs entirely in your browser — no sign-up, and nothing you enter leaves your device. It opens pre-filled with a realistic example, so you can see how it works before replacing any figure with your own; the results update as you type. Press Calculate to refresh the result panel, or Reset to return to the example.

The inputs it asks for:

  • Scenario 1 Probability — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).
  • Scenario 1 Return — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).
  • Scenario 2 Probability — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).
  • Scenario 2 Return — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).
  • Scenario 3 Probability — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).
  • Scenario 3 Return — a percentage (enter 6 for 6%).

Worked example

Using the example values — Scenario 1 Probability 30%, Scenario 1 Return 10%, Scenario 2 Probability 50%, Scenario 2 Return 6%, Scenario 3 Probability 20%, Scenario 3 Return -4% — the Expected Return Calculator returns a Expected Return of 5.20%. It also reports Standard Deviation (Risk) (4.92%), Total Probability (100.00%).

Prefer your own numbers? Change any field above and this recomputes instantly.

Educational information, not financial advice. See our methodology for how these tools are built and checked.